Cranbourne

Tomorrow, December 13, 2024Flat7fGood

Verdict

DISTURBIA (2) struggles to break through, having won only three from 29, but did win a metro BM70 just a few months ago and the last-start second placing suggested he might be close to a win and his on-speed racing style is suited to this track. STUPENDOUS (3) took a while to break the maiden but did so convincing at Kyneton two back and then won again last time. No reason she can't go close again now she's discovered that winning feeling. FIRE HIGH (4) was never a factor last start, but that was a metro BM70 and she did start $8.50 after back-to-back wins either side of a break, which is worth noting given the drop in grade here. DESERT STAR (1) turned in an improved run last time, but that was on his preferred Heavy ground, which he won't get here. ZAAFFAIR STEAL (6) wasn't disgraced last start but does have a couple of lengths to make up on Disturbia, who comes through the same race.

2. Disturbia
3. Stupendous
4. Fire High

Win Only

1. 1. Desert Star
J: BEN ALLENT: BEN, WILL & JD HAYES
F: 37762
Price History:
3.50
Age:
5
Weight:
1-13
Gear:
-
Official Rating:
62
Days Since Last Run:
19
Verdict
At the latest run 2nd of 7 at Kilmore Bm64 on November 24 over 1450m, in the wet; 3.5 len behind Eddy Street carrying 59kg at $3. Before that settled back and ran on when 6th of 12 at Pakenham Bm64 on November 8 over 1400m, 4.5 len behind Rubology carrying 59.5kg at $15. Showed improvement last start, so reluctant to completely rule out.
3. 3. Stupendous
J: LOGAN BATEST: LLOYD KENNEWELL & LUCY YEOMANS
F: 2x211
Price History:
3.00
Age:
4
Weight:
1-12
Gear:
-
Official Rating:
64
Days Since Last Run:
32
Verdict
Chasing a hat-trick. Comes here off a 32-day let-up. Last start favourite; won by a long-neck at Warrnambool F&M Bm64 November 11 over 1400m defeating Courageous Lass with 55kg at $3. The start before that favourite; won by 1.5 len at Kyneton Mdn-Sw October 22 over 1469m in soft going defeating Scottie's Legacy carrying 57.5kg at $1.80. In hot form and can complete the hat-trick.
2. 2. Disturbia
J: WILL GORDONT: EMMA-LEE & DAVID BROWNE
F: 94052
Price History:
3.50
Age:
5
Weight:
1-12
Gear:
-
Official Rating:
64
Days Since Last Run:
15
Verdict
At the latest run made ground from midfield; 2nd of 10 at Caulfield Heath F&M Bm64 on November 28 over 1600m, 0.8 len behind Indian Jewel with 60kg at $12. The run before that raced on the speed and boxed on steadily 5th of 7 at Mornington Bm64 on November 3 over 1600m, 2.5 len behind Claim The Crown carrying 57kg at $8.50. Struggles to break through but only needs to repeat last start to go close.
6. 6. Zaaffair Steal
J: DANIEL MOORT: JULIUS SANDHU
F: 43126
Price History:
6.00
Age:
4
Weight:
1-12
Gear:
-
Official Rating:
61
Days Since Last Run:
15
Verdict
Last start tracked the speed and boxed on steadily 6th of 10 at Caulfield Heath F&M Bm64 on November 28 over 1600m, 2.75 len behind Indian Jewel with 58.5kg at $12. The start before that tracked the speed and boxed on steadily 2nd of 11 at this track 0 - 62 on October 2 over 1600m, 1.75 len behind Platinum Destroyer with 57.5kg at $17. Unplaced last start but previous two were good enough to be a top-three chance here.
4. 4. Fire High
J: JAKE NOONANT: CLIFF BROWN
F: 41x19
Price History:
8.50
Age:
4
Weight:
1-12
Gear:
-
Official Rating:
62
Days Since Last Run:
14
Verdict
Third-up today and won third-up in the past. Resuming won by a nose at Ballarat Bm64 November 4 over 1400m defeating Frenchmans Bay carrying 55kg at $19. Second-up 9th of 11 at Moonee Valley Bm64 on November 29 over 1600m, 6 len behind Princeofnottingham carrying 57kg at $8.50. Can improve. Genuine hope based on the win two back.
5. 5. Grey Northern
J: LIAM RIORDANT: SIMON ZAHRA
F: 74038
Price History:
10.00
Age:
5
Weight:
1-12
Gear:
-
Official Rating:
61
Days Since Last Run:
38
Verdict
Comes here off a 38-day let-up. At the latest run 8th of 13 at Flemington Greys Bm90 on November 5 over 1400m, 6 len behind Cloudland with 54kg at $67. The run before that 3rd of 8 at Ballarat F&M Bm64 on October 24 over 1600m, 2.5 len behind Friday At Five with 58.5kg at $8. Rates highly and is among the chances.
7. 7. Anything But
J: JADE DAROSET: R C MANNING
F: 72330
Price History:
201.00
Age:
9
Weight:
1-11
Gear:
-
Official Rating:
38
Days Since Last Run:
24
Verdict
Most recently second last of 11 at Bairnsdale Bm58 on November 19 over 2200m, 10 len behind Luckyheleft with 54kg at $67. The start before that 3rd in a small field at Balnarring Pic-Trpy on November 9 over 2000m, 4.5 len behind London Bell carrying 63.5kg at $4.50. Prefer to see him back in form.

Cranbourne

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